You're only stating demand factors. The flip side of the coin (pun intended), the supply side, is driven directly by the amount of individuals mining. The amount of individuals verifying the block-chain is essentially the backing of the currency, that is if you want to gain a sense of the long-run forces/trends driving the price of bitcoin, or any other coin, you need to forecast the tradeoff/incentives for miners; where the tradeoff for miners is the reward/cost(GPUs, electricity, bandwidth etc.) they are facing for each coin they mine.
Hey guys, just wanted to introduce myself on the forum. My background is in economics and financial mathematics/statistics (as my username may suggest). I also have a few projects on the Apple App Store. You can checkout my app Crypto Monitor: Bitcoin Ticker here .The app gives streaming real-time quotes and has hundreds of alerts users can setup based on technical analysis. I'd be more than happy to let a couple of members try out the app for free (just leave a comment below or pm me). Also, if you have interests in time-series modeling/machine learning for forecasting I'm definitely down to work with others on automated trading systems. To get a sense of my work you can also check out my other app: Clairvoyant - Stock Market and Forex Forecasting which lets users build quant finance models on the go in an easy to use way. Looking forward to contributing and working with other forum members!!